In view of the geographical spread of ASF within and outside Europe in the domestic pig sector and the wild boar population, the risk of introduction of ASF into Germany has been evaluated with a special focus on the potential introduction into the wild boar population. Jumps over large distances in the disease spread (e.g. to Belgium, Hungary, the Czech Republic) clearly show the existing risk of introduction into Germany through human activity. As the disease now also occurs in the South-East of Belgium, the risk of introduction into neighbouring areas in Germany through migrating infected wild boar has therefore risen.
The risk assessment for all other considered risk scenarios has not changed since the last risk assessment (issued in July 2017): The risk of entry of ASF into Germany through illegal transportation and disposal of contaminated material remains high. The risk of entry of contaminated pork meat and from pork derived products by vehicles or people along the main traffic routes is judged as high in the context of a “worst case scenario”. The risk of entry via hunting tourism in affected areas and by carrying back trophies from such areas is estimated as moderate.